What is a prediction in reading?

A prediction in reading is a thoughtful guess about what will happen next in a story or article, based on clues from the text and the reader’s own knowledge. It helps keep the reader active and focused while they read.

Why is prediction important for comprehension?

Prediction is important because it makes the reader think ahead, connect events, and look for evidence. When a reader checks whether their prediction was correct, they are paying closer attention, which strengthens overall comprehension.

How can I help my child make better predictions?

You can pause while reading together and ask questions like, "What do you think will happen next?" and "What makes you think that?" Encourage your child to point to words, pictures, or events in the text that support their prediction.

Does a prediction have to be correct?

No. A prediction does not have to be correct to be useful. What matters is that the prediction is reasonable, based on the text, and that the reader is willing to change it when new information appears.

What Is a Prediction? Definition and Examples

Kid-friendly explanation

Prediction means using clues to guess what might happen next in a story. You look at the pictures, the words, and what has already happened. Then you think, "What do I think will happen now?" Your prediction can change as you read more!

Worked examples

Example 1 (younger readers):

Maria is reading a story. So far, dark clouds have filled the sky, the wind is blowing hard, and people are running inside and closing their windows.

A prediction question might be: "What do you think will happen next?" A reasonable prediction is that it will start to rain or storm, because the clues (dark clouds, strong wind, people closing windows) match what usually happens before a storm.

Example 2 (older readers):

In a novel, a character keeps hiding low test scores from a parent and ignoring reminders about an upcoming report card. The parent has mentioned several times that there will be consequences if grades do not improve.

A prediction question might be: "What is likely to happen when the report card comes home?" A thoughtful prediction is that the parent will discover the low grades, feel upset or disappointed, and that there may be a serious conversation or loss of privileges. This prediction uses text clues (hidden scores, repeated warnings) and real-life knowledge about how adults usually respond.

Going deeper with prediction

As texts get harder in upper grades, prediction is less about guessing surprises and more about tracking patterns. Readers notice how characters usually react, how problems tend to grow, and how an author builds tension, then use those patterns to predict likely outcomes.

Prediction also supports deeper comprehension. When your child predicts, they are actively thinking about cause and effect, asking what might happen because of earlier events, and checking whether the text confirms or challenges their ideas.

Older students may also predict how an informational text will be organized or what a section will explain next. For example, after reading about a problem, they might predict that the next section will describe solutions or results, which connects to understanding cause and effect and the author’s structure.

Common mistakes with prediction

Only wild guessing: Some students make predictions that have nothing to do with the text, like "A dragon will appear" in a realistic school story. Remind them that a prediction must be based on clues in the text and what they already know about real life.
Thinking predictions must be "right": A child may feel they failed if their prediction does not match what happens. Explain that prediction is about thinking carefully, not about being perfect, and that good readers change predictions when they learn new information.
Not updating predictions: Some students make one prediction at the beginning and never adjust it, even when the story clearly changes direction. Encourage them to pause, ask "Does my prediction still make sense?", and revise it using new clues.

How prediction shows up in everyday life

Prediction is something your child already uses all the time. They predict that a ball will bounce back when they throw it, that a friend will laugh at a joke, or that a favorite show will end with a happy scene. In reading, they use the same kind of thinking, just with story clues and information from the text.

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What is a prediction?